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	<title>RaidenWorks &#187; Musings</title>
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		<title>RaidenWorks &#187; Musings</title>
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		<title>Failure is as important as success (and possibly more so)</title>
		<link>http://raidenworks.com/2013/02/15/failure-is-as-important-as-success-and-possibly-more-so/</link>
		<comments>http://raidenworks.com/2013/02/15/failure-is-as-important-as-success-and-possibly-more-so/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2013 18:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>RAIDEN</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[EA development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Musings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://raidenworks.com/?p=1148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Keeping things trading related, many a times you will come across in a forum, or a publication, or been advocated to by another person, a technical system where a whole bunch of charts are shown how a setup is ideal for predicting the following profitable price movement. A highly compelling story of its success is painted by &#8230; <a href="http://raidenworks.com/2013/02/15/failure-is-as-important-as-success-and-possibly-more-so/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#187;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=raidenworks.com&#038;blog=31189728&#038;post=1148&#038;subd=raidenworks&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Keeping things trading related, many a times you will come across in a forum, or a publication, or been advocated to by another person, a technical system where a whole bunch of charts are shown how a setup is ideal for predicting the following profitable price movement. A highly compelling story of its success is painted by the evidence presented. What often is not shown are cases where the setup fails.</p>
<blockquote><p>Lack of evidence is not evidence of lack.</p></blockquote>
<p>Why do they do it? Possibly because they are either:</p>
<ol>
<li>Novices (they don&#8217;t know any better and likely don&#8217;t trade the setups they advocate)</li>
<li>Malicious (they need bait for you to sign up for their trading courses and have nothing better to offer further than telling you to keep your psychology in check)</li>
</ol>
<p><a href="http://raidenworks.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/2013-02-15-facepalm.jpg"><img alt="2013-02-15 Facepalm" src="http://raidenworks.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/2013-02-15-facepalm.jpg?w=750&#038;h=562" width="750" height="562" /></a></p>
<p>When designing your own system, stop bullshitting yourself and go through ALL the failures and winners. It&#8217;d be tedious and time-consuming but if the gain from the winners outweigh the losses from the losers, you&#8217;ve got it.</p>
<p>Misc:<br />
The scary thing is that for many fundamental traders with YEARS of experience, they still fall foul of this mental trap of focusing on when their chosen technical entry method &#8216;gives&#8217; them a signal, and not when the very same signal results in a failure. Often they use the rationale that it &#8216;reinforces&#8217; their fundamental call.<br />
If the technical analysis itself has no statistical edge (or worse, a negative one), there really is no reinforcement and they are better off not bothering with it.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">2013-02-15 Facepalm</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Caveat Labōrāre</title>
		<link>http://raidenworks.com/2012/04/19/caveat-laborare/</link>
		<comments>http://raidenworks.com/2012/04/19/caveat-laborare/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 22:21:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>RAIDEN</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Musings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quip]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://raidenworks.com/?p=732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don&#8217;t confuse effort with results; or earnestness with competence.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=raidenworks.com&#038;blog=31189728&#038;post=732&#038;subd=raidenworks&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t confuse effort with results; or earnestness with competence.</p>
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